Mutta vaikka olen tätä mieltä haluan kuitenkin esittää myös todistusaineistoa, joka tukee Orpon väitettä. Foreign Affairs puhui USA:n uudesta puolustusstrategiasta ja Euroopan painoarvon vähenemisestä tavalla joka antoi yleisen huolen lisäksi tiettyä optimismia Suomen osalta. Se ymmärtääkö Trump tästä mitään ja antaako Trump näiden rationaalisten analyysien vaikuttaa omaan ulkopolitiikkaansa vaikkapa Suomea kohtaan on sitten täysin toinen asia.
To be truly effective for the coming decades, any shift in the U.S. defense posture will have to be undertaken carefully and flexibly. Although some countries outside the Western Hemisphere matter less because their relative economic power has declined, some may matter more because of their location. Countries that are close to potential targets in the territory of a U.S. adversary and that have large amounts of complex terrain with low population densities may offer particular advantages to the United States. Deployed in such places, shorter-range offensive mobile weapons can better escape detection and destruction. Smaller weapons will also be lighter and easier to hide. Operating from countries comparatively close to potential targets, the United States can use smaller drones to provide useful ISR. Washington may wish to work with allies that are close to U.S. adversaries and that have territories with these characteristics. In the case of Russia, this means that rather than abandoning NATO, the United States should reshape its relations with select NATO countries, such as Finland and other Nordic and Baltic states.
On the periphery of China, the Philippine archipelago—which is close to the island of Hainan and serves as the base of the Chinese southern fleet—is another such area. The U.S. Marine Corps is already working with the Philippine government to explore the defensive use of these islands. Kyushu, the southernmost island in the Japanese home island chain, is also well located relative to the coast of the East China Sea and Chinese northern fleet bases. Hokkaido is well located relative to Vladivostok on the east coast of Russia. Access to these areas in times of war or crisis could be granted by the local governments; they could allow mobile U.S. forces with precision-strike weapons to deploy in return for military guarantees. In the longer term, autonomous offensive forces might be inserted by low observable aircraft or submarines and left behind with small or no human crews.
Koko juttu on tässä maksumuurin takana.
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