Afganistanista uusi Libya?

USA lienee todella poistumassa Afganistanista. 

Trumpin jo suorittamien joukkojen supistusten myötä Taleban on jo onnistunut valtaamaan laajoja alueita ja Afganistanin armeijan ja poliisivoimien moraali on vahvassa laskussa. Foreign Affairs -lehti ennustaa Afganistanille epävakaita aikoja. Foreign Affairsin nukaan talebanit tuskin monopolisoivat maata kokonaan vaan lähinnä etelän - pohjoisten maakuntien joukot taistelevat vastaan. 

Kiina, Venäjä ja Iran tullevat USA:n tilalle. Afganistan muuttuu uudeksi Libyaksi.

A PROBLEM OF TIME

Should the Biden administration follow through on its reported plan to withdraw all U.S. troops by September, the Taliban will probably capture most of the south and east of the country in a matter of months. After that, the government could collapse. It is also possible that the government, its special operations forces, and the old Northern Alliance—Tajik, Hazara, and Uzbek leaders——could muster enough unity and grit to stave off the fall of Kabul. Indeed, the Northern Alliance is already rumored to be mobilizing forces to fight.

The problem then would become time. Without U.S. advisers, Afghan equipment would degrade and the country’s special operations forces would be worn down. Politically, the current government, led by President Ashraf Ghani, who belongs to the Pashtun ethnic group, would struggle to justify its rule with the northerners providing most of the fighters. And the northerners themselves may not be what they used to be. Over the past four years, the Taliban have scored victories in the north, raising questions about the old northern allies’ will to fight.  

Ultimately, not only Afghans and Americans will determine the course of the war. China, India, Iran, and Russia all have interests in Afghanistan and do not wish to see a Taliban emirate. Iran and Russia have long-standing relations with Hazaras, Tajiks, and Uzbeks who oppose the Taliban. The two countries have been playing both sides for years, arming or at least funding the Taliban as a way to press the United States out of their backyard while publicly rejecting the idea of a Taliban emirate. Interests will shift as the United States departs. The conflict could come to resemble the Libyan and Syrian civil wars, as different regional powers back different sides. Even if such regional intervention is enough to prevent the Taliban from regaining power, the outlook for Ghani’s democratic government will not be good; of all the regional players, only India favors democracy.